Archive for September, 2007

More on the iPhone/iPhod debacle…

NickN| September 10, 2007 10:33 am

Okay, so apparently I am far from alone in smelling something fishy in the recent price slashing and product announcements re: iPhone and iPod Touch.

There’s an interesting post on Crunchgear that asks if Mr. Jobs is sick of cell phone carriers already.

One of the bloggers I enjoy, Paul Kedrosky, has some good analysis too. His main points are:

  1. Smells as though the price cut wasn’t thought out carefully
  2. It’s a public relations fiasco, "with a tone-deaf Apple cutting prices without adequate consideration of the political impact on its existing iPhone customer base"

I agree on both points.

While we’re talking about phones and companies that may or may not know what they’re doing, is anyone else curious about the Google Phone?  I’m not one to write off things before I see them, but the announcement that the whole UI is written in Java gave me pause for thought (and not in a good way)…

More Functionality than an 8 year old could handle…

NickN| September 7, 2007 6:40 pm

Behold: The 10 in 1 Junior Electronics Lab!

10in1_small_3

So yes, I was a nerdy kid.  But this "laboratory" was a wealth of  technological whizzyness.  Not only was it crammed with 14 crazy electronic components, it was chock full of fantastic, almost Confuscian, worldly advice: "most of the interconnecting wires can be the short ones; in cases where the wires do not reach, use the longer wires."  And my other favorite "this will assure that a leaky battery will not damage your unit."  Not sure I was worried about my unit at such a tender age, but their concern was comforting nonetheless.

And the point of this marvel?  10 different projects, ranging from a simple crystal radio to a broadcasting radio station (less impressive than it sounds, sadly) to a high-falutin home burglar alarm.

Heady stuff.

I can clearly remember hurling a damn long piece of wire into a very tall tree in my parent’s back yard and actually being able to hear european radio on my bakelite headphones (hey, I’m not _that_ old, they just happened to be lying around).

Jokes aside, this little kit rocked.  It’s probably the clearest thing I can point to as the starting point of my interest in all things technical.

If I ever find it again, it’s going in a shadow box on the wall ;-)

The iPhod Cometh!

NickN| September 6, 2007 9:51 am

Behold, the power of this blog!  As has been witnessed before by my loyal readers, this is apparently a powerful magic wishing blog.

Today, I had my wish granted for an iPhod.  You can see the details on Apple’s website.  The "iPod Touch" is basically an iPhone without a camera or a phone.  And it’s $100 bucks cheaper than the newly discounted iPhone.

Now I’m not one for conspiracy theories.  I’m more of an Occam’s Razor kind of guy.  But this smells funny to me.  The main reason I didn’t think we’d see an iPhod is because of what it would do to iPhone sales.  If I were a conspiracy theorist kind of guy, I’d be rolling my eyes at the history here.

First of all, Apple, legendary customer-driven company partners with AT&T, legendary treat-customers-like-crap company (my personal opinion, but I don’t think I’m alone).  They release the iPhone at a premium price to much applause, with Apple making all kinds of money off AT&T’s back (yay Apple).   Apple signs a ridiculously long exclusive with AT&T (we’re talking geologic timeframes in the tech world) and  gets an obscene hype-ride and a nice bump in stock price too.

But then in less than 3 months, Apple (a) announces the iPhod and (b) drops the iPhone price by $200.

That has to be one of the fastest product cannibalization and price drop two-steps in history!  Announcing the iPhod answers the prayers of all those who would choose death before signing a contract with AT&T, and all those that really didn’t want the phone part anyway (like me).  All those of you wanting an unlocked iPhone so you had a nice media player can now save yourselves the trouble and go iPhod.  But on top of that, they go and smack all the early adopters with a $200 "you should have waited" penalty.

Now if Apple were struggling, or if the iPhone was a turkey with awful sales (Zune, anyone?), I could understand this.  But that’s not the case at all here.  And while Apple may have some history of odd decisions, that’s not really the path they’ve been on lately.

So I’m left wondering… What are they up to???  Inquiring minds want to know.   

P.s. To our investors and potential investors: our expenses just increased by $399 per employee…

Smarter ain’t always better…

NickN| September 5, 2007 7:17 pm

Gee, I’m terribly reflective this week.  Everything seems to be a "Thought O’ the Day".  Oh well.  Feel free to heckle me in the comments if this is getting boring!

Earlier in my career, I learned the hard way that what works the best is NOT the same as what’s the smartest. 

I have my moments of damning over confidence, but for the most part, I like to think I get technology.  In general, it would be fair to say that I see a broad role for technology in our society and I believe in the many benefits it brings.

Given the choice between some kind of Luddite/Amish utopia and the mess we live in today, I’d take the latter.  For example, I love the products from these guys, but I’m not so infatuated with technology that I’d ever buy one of these (I’m brave — I’ll touch my trashcan). 

Enough staging.  On with the story.

I used to work for a company that made tools to integrate paper-based drawings with CAD software.  You could scan your blueprints/architectural drawings and load them in to AutoCAD, where through the magic of technology, they would behave like a typical CAD drawing.  All very clever.

As with any good software product back in the day, we were trying to placate the gods of feature creep by staying on a regular release cycle.

One of the "big" features that no-one did well at the time was symbol recognition.  Just as OCR recognizes scanned text and converts it in to words, symbol recognition recognizes the scanned squiggles that denote doorways or windows, or electrical outlets etc.

Good symbol recognition is absurdly hard.  Matching handwriting is bad enough, but symbols come in all shapes and sizes and aren’t usually separate from the rest of the drawing in the same way that text is.

As I recall, on a sunny day with a light wind, the best software at the time hit about a 65% accuracy rate.

We invested years of time and a fair chunk of $$ to "solve" this problem with some very advanced code.  Fancy AI with neural this and fuzzy that.  So cutting edge, it hadn’t had time to bleed.  With much work, we increased recognition rates by more than 30%, hitting as high as 85% in some cases.

Oh how we mocked out competitor with their backwards technology and measly 65% recognition rate.  Oh how we praised our Deep-Thought-in-Lines-of-Code recognition engine.

But here’s the thing: If you hit 85%, 15% of the symbols in the drawing are still wrong, and you don’t know which ones are wrong until you check.  Our competitor developed a snazzy UI that identified anything that *might* be a symbol in a drawing and gave you tools to very quickly bounce around all of them, manually converting the symbols when you found them.

With a typical drawing, allowing for processing, error checking and cleanup, our incredibly high tech solution was 2-5 times SLOWER than the stone-age-inspired technology from our competitors.

Their manual system optimized the contribution of both the CPU and the human, delivering a better result than either would have alone.

Stupid simple technology.  Genius implementation.  And they won.

So, like the title says, being the smartest isn’t always the best way to win.  Sometimes a little stupid goes a long way…

One of my favorite pieces of research…

NickN| September 4, 2007 7:29 pm

I’ve moved a bunch of times in the last 5 years and, if I’m honest, I’ve accumulated more junk than I should have.  So I spent part of Labor Day going through some old boxes that are well past their purge date.

Some of it is the ever increasing box of "valuables" that you keep from each job you have — stuff I’m proud of (first real business plan, press coverage etc) or stuff that I thought would be useful again in the future.  As a side note, this box was the original inspiration for disruptorMonkey’s products.

One of the items I found was a press article from January 2000 about some research by Dr. David Dunning, a professor of Psychology at Cornell. 

Dr Dunning was studying incompetence.  One of his conclusions was that "the skills for competence often are the same skills necessary to recognize competence".  As noted by Justin Kruger, one of Dr Dunning’s grad students at the time, this means that "Not only do they reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the ability to recognize it." 

Ouch.  Double whammy.  Incompetence often encompasses an inability to recognize your own incompetence.

The study goes on to note that not only are incompetent people unaware of their incompetence, they tend to be overly confident in their abilities, grossly overestimating their performance in comparison to their peers.

And the crowning glory?  The study also found that incompetent individuals were less able to recognize competence in others…

Talk about a bad cycle to get stuck in.

But here’s the question:  I like to think that I’m a reasonably competent individual.  You probably like to think that about yourself too.  How do you know you’re not incompetent and just blissfully unaware of it?

That’s enough messing with your head for one day.  You can read a summary of the research and a link to the original paper here.  Happy reading!