Archive for November, 2007

Preparing for Turkey-coma…

NickN| November 20, 2007 2:37 pm

It’ll be a slow-posting week as I descend into a mild turkey-coma for Thanksgiving…

A few odds and ends before we get there:

1)  It’s now been a little over a year since Logan (our CTO) joined the company.  He’s been single-mindedly shepherding the development of Unifyr ever since, and has written an ungodly amount of code.  I feel as though I’ve written a lot of business plan, but it’s probably less than 1/5 the amount of code he’s generated in the last 12 months.  Thanks dude!

2)  We’re almost officially one year old too — we incorporated in December 2006.  Time sure flies.

3)  Thanks also to the company that put up the 20′ inflatable snowman in Wake Forest — you made my daughter’s day.

4)  This Fall has been amazing — probably thanks to the drought.  Admittedly, we didn’t have many trees in AZ so I’m easily impressed, but the colors have been impressive  This crummy phonecam pic in no way does it justice:

Dsc00140

5)  I’m campaigning for Logan to step away from the code for at least 3
of the 4 days of holiday/weekend.  Please add your votes in the
comments.

Happy Thanksgiving!

What’s in it for me?

NickN| November 16, 2007 7:19 pm

Last week I took a meeting with some guys building a company.  I was introduced to them by two colleagues who’s opinions I trust.  On the surface, there’s nothing in it for me.  They’re looking for a CEO, but I have my hands full here.  They’re also in an industry I made a conscious decision to leave a few years ago.

In the past few weeks, I’ve made a number of introductions, taken a bunch of meetings, provided some (hopefully) useful advice, sat down with folks I don’t know and tried to play matchmaker with some folks looking for new jobs.

Am I a wacky altruist?  No.  Nor am I particularly a devotee of karma.  The truth is that it is entirely self serving.  In any meeting, there’s an opportunity.  It may be to learn, or hone skills in a new (or familiar) context,  a chance to find future employees or make connections that will be useful to me or disruptorMonkey in the future.

It’s something I’ve always tried to do and it’s mostly a long term play without a clearly defined goal.  But I see enough results to make it worthwhile.  For example, a missed introduction at an informal meeting lead directly to finding one of our board members.  A conversation about moving to Phoenix lead indirectly to finding Logan, my trusty CTO.  Some fundamental insights critical to our success came from reading a copy of Wired magazine and pinging a few people.

It’s always good to wonder "what’s in it for me", but it’s also okay if the answer is a little vague. 

The scariest user interface I’ve seen in a long time…

NickN| November 15, 2007 6:39 pm

Brought to you by the wonderful folks at Top Gear.  Even my wife (the most non-car-enthusiast I know) found this episode funny…

Scroll forward to the 3.00 minute mark to see one of the scariest UI’s I’ve ever seen.  Anyone know what ANY of those buttons and knobs do?

Enjoy!

p.s. If you want to see the other parts of the show, here are part 2, part 3 and part 4.

My new hero…

NickN| November 14, 2007 11:24 am

I guess this is rant week…  Last night, I was watching Nova — something I rarely do.  The show was
"Judgement Day: Intelligent Design On Trial".  You can see much of it
at the PBS website

In general, I made a conscious decision that this blog would not be political or religious in nature, and in general, that’s something I’ll stick to.  But I do have a new personal hero: U.S. District Court Judge John E.
Jones III

First, some background…  To me, Intelligent Design has always been thinly veiled creationism.  But my personal objections to intelligent design have nothing to do with religion and everything to do with science.

Any Scientist knows that they are working with a theory that is an approximation
of reality that seems to hold true under rigorous and repeated testing.  For something to be considered a
valid theory, there are two simple criteria that have to be met:

  1. The theory must make predictions that can be objectively (and repeatedly) tested
  2. The theory must clearly explain previously observed phenomena
     

These tenets of science are non-negotiable — they form the basis of everything Science has ever achieved.  I.D. fails miserably at #1, making few, if any, testable predictions.  In contrast, Darwinian Evolution specifically and accurately predicts transitional fossils such as Tiktaalik
rosae
(a fishy thing from 375 Million years ago that is clearly a mid-way point between a fish and a land-based tetrapod).

But back to the story.  Judge Jones was the appointed judge for the 2005 trial of Tammy
Kitzmiller, et al. v. Dover Area School District, et al
, AKA the Dover School District Intelligent Design case. 

As some of you are doubtless aware, in 2004, the Dover, Pennsylvania
school board established a policy that science teachers would have to read a
statement to biology students suggesting that there is an alternative to
Darwin’s theory of evolution called intelligent design. ID claims that certain features of life are too complex to have
evolved naturally, and therefore must have been designed by an intelligent
agent. A group of parents eventually filed a suit demanding the statement be withdrawn.

Personally, I think the world would be a better place if more people understood the idea of a scientific theory, and I see nothing wrong in opening people’s minds to the fact that new theories may arise that provide a better explanation of the world we live in.  But that clearly was not what was going on here.

What’s interesting is that Judge Jones’s background is rather conservative.  He is a Lutheran and lifelong Republican.  He was appointed to the District Court by George W. Bush (a man quoted as saying that the jury was still out on Evolution).  Prior to the District Court, he was the chairman of the Pennsylvania Liquor Control Board where he banned Bad Frog Beer after determining that its label (a frog giving the finger) was in bad taste.  In short, he’d be a perfect candidate to support a religious, rather than fully objective viewpoint.

But Judge Jones pursued the case rationally, dealing only with the issues directly relevant to the case.  Ultimately,  he decided for the plaintiffs, writing in his decision that
intelligent design "cannot uncouple itself from its creationist, and thus
religious, antecedents."

Here are some other quotes from his 139 page ruling:

"After a searching review of the
record and applicable case law, we find that while intelligent design arguments
may be true, a proposition on which the Court takes no position, intelligent
design is not science. We find that intelligent design fails on three different
levels, any one of which is sufficient to preclude a determination that
intelligent design is science. They are: (1) intelligent design violates the
centuries-old ground rules of science by invoking and permitting supernatural
causation; (2) the argument of irreducible complexity, central to intelligent
design, employs the same flawed and illogical contrived dualism that doomed
creation science in the 1980s; and (3) intelligent design’s negative
attacks on evolution have been refuted by the scientific community."

"The disclaimer written by the Dover
School Board singles out the theory of evolution for special treatment,
misrepresents its status in the scientific community, causes students to doubt
its validity without scientific justification, presents students with a
religious alternative masquerading as a scientific theory, directs them to
consult a creationist text as though it were a science resource, and instructs
students to forego scientific inquiry in the public school classroom and
instead to seek out religious instruction elsewhere."

and finally:

"We do not question that many of the
leading advocates of intelligent design have bona fide and deeply held beliefs
which drive their scholarly endeavors. Nor do we controvert that intelligent
design should continue to be studied, debated, and discussed. As stated, our
conclusion today is that it is unconstitutional to teach intelligent design as
an alternative to evolution in a public school science classroom."

The Nova documentary is great — well worth watching — with some fantastic interviews and in-depth information.  It was co-produced with Paul Allen’s Vulcan Productions.  I tip my hat to both of them.

But I’d like to single out Judge Jones as someone worthy of respect.  He’s since endured death threats and blistering attacks in conservative media.  But I’m guessing he sleeps well at night, knowing full well that he approached the case with an open mind, thoughtfully weighing the presented evidence and making his decision accordingly… 

Free-But-Advertising-Supported Products: Why leave cash on the table when the customer is willing to spend it?

NickN| November 13, 2007 6:21 pm

I am so very tired of seeing monetizable services given away for free with the flimsy excuse that money will be made through advertising.  Once you set a price for a product, it is very hard to raise it.  Set it at free and you’re stuck with it for the life of the product (or the company).

I’m not saying all ad-driven businesses are bad.  As with all things, there’s a time and a place for an ad-driven revenue model.  But more often than not it’s a cop out, and a crappy one at that.

Here are some cases where ad-driven revenues make sense:

1)  Some products simply can’t be commercialized in the traditional sense because of their very nature.  Search is a great example.  Many sites do it, some better than others.  All have their revenues driven by advertising and that’s fine.  Webmail and web browsers are two other examples.

2)  Some products are new and different and they require lots of users to be useful.  Free becomes a pre-requisite to make user adoption as frictionless as possible.  Ad revenues become a way to staunch the bleeding from the balance sheet.

3)  Some products are highly disruptive, taking on an entrenched business and redefining the business model in the process.  For example Craigslist (not advertising supported, but free for most users) took on local newspaper classifieds with a free model and are apparently winning hands down.

There are probably other examples, but in each of the above cases, there is a clear reason to go with Free/Ad supported.  There’s also the Fremium model, which is another beast (and another post) entirely.

But there are plenty of products that fall outside those categories that people will willingly pay for.  And if that’s the case YOU SHOULD CHARGE THEM.

No other industry I’m aware of is so willing to give away it’s revenues. And I, for one, am tired of it.

Here’s a case in point…  At the recent Startup Weekend in Chapel Hill, we came up with Workperch.  It’s a simple idea.  Entrepreneurs often don’t have nice office space and occasionally need it for a couple of hours or a day.  Many companies have space that’s not in use 100% of the time.  Workperch is a match-making service for people who need very temporary space and companies that have it.  You pay when you book a space and workperch takes a piece of that payment.

The value add for the location is that we handle identity verification
and billing, and make the booking process simple.  We’re also building
demand that can generate additional revenue for them.  We don’t charge the locations an upfront fee because we want a low barrier to entry, but they do "pay as you go" through the percentage we take off the booking.

The value add for the individuals that need space is that they have no easy way to get it otherwise.  There are no strings attached and no long term commitments or contracts.  You book space as and when you need it.  A base level virtual office program will cost hundreds of dollars per month, with facilities such as conference room usage adding $100-200+ per day.  With Workperch, people can find spaces for $10-30 per hour on a one-off basis.

Here’s a use case…  disruptorMonkey is like any other startup: every penny counts.  We don’t have offices and we will hold off on formal office space for as long as possible.  But at least a couple of times a month, I’ll have a meeting with an advisor or board member and want something a little more private than Starbucks.  With Workperch, I’d search for a space, pay a nominal referral fee (not a "rental fee" because we’re not sub-leasing) and be all set.  The host location gets to pocket most of the referral fee and Workperch pockets 10%.

It’s a useful service that people would be willing to pay for.  If I don’t want to pay, I have free alternatives (Starbucks, Carribou, Panera Bread etc).  Workperch will never be a billion dollar business, but it could build a healthy customer base and generate decent revenues.

And yet during the weekend people repeatedly "felt" it should be free.  We were somehow taking advantage of our customers, or that we’d never gain traction if it wasn’t free or <insert vague argument here>…

So let’s say we made it free.  What would that do?  In the absence of a fairy godmother, we’d need a revenue source.  So Ad-driven is the way to go, right?  Well not really.  Workperch will never be a premium destination for millions of people, so revenues from something like AdSense will ALWAYS be minimal.  Sure, we could make it some kind of entrepreneurial portal site and try to build a huge audience, but that’s an awful lot of work that has nothing to do with the core business.  It’s an unnecessary complication.  The alternative is to sell our own ads.  And that’s just dumb — not enough traffic to make AdSense work and now we’re adding expense because we need salespeople to sell the ads.

There are numerous other reasons why it’s a bad idea, like undermining our ability to verify identity.  But as Occam says, the simplest answer is, all things being equal, the most likely.  And in this case, if people will pay for a product, there’s simply no reason to give it away for free.